Summary: Senator Barack Obama received the most amount of votes amongst the young population. Obama has spoken on college campuses for months, and has successfully driven an enormous database of potential volunteers. In Iowa, young voters came out in strength, and 57% of them ages 17 to 24 said Obama was their first choice. The youth vote can do the same on Tuesday in New Hampshire as well. Professors from Dartmouth predicted a 60% voter turnout on the campus, exceeding previous primaries. John McCain is a close second behind Obama. He drew Mr. hundreds of young potential voters when he spoke at Dartmouth. Falling behind in the youth vote are Democrats John Edwards (with only 14% of the youth vote in Iowa), and Hilary Clinton (10%). Republicans with a very little percentage of the youth vote are Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani.
Impact on the 2008 election: Over the long run, young voters rarely vote in percentages as high as older voters. Most candidates aren’t concerned about the youth vote. However, Obama has been so determined to capture its power. His campaign catches the youth’s attention, an impression he emphasizes by having aides place young people behind him on stage. With a big turnout of Dartmouth voters at the New Hampshire primary, Obama could very well take the lead.
Focus Question: Will young voters make a huge impact on the 2008 election? Or are young voter turnouts still not strong enough to have a big effect?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/08/us/politics/08youth.html?hp
13 responses so far ↓
alecjacobs // January 10, 2008 at 2:27 am |
Young voters have a major impact on any election. They clearly make up a major demographic in any election but, as you said, they often don’t turn out in as high numbers as other groups of voters. But will they be the single most important demographic in the 2008 election and the primaries leading up to November? Actually, I think they’re tied with the American black woman.
Young voters helped Obama gain the edge in Iowa, which gave him a lot of momentum going into New Hampshire. Unfortunately for him and fortunately for Hillary Clinton, it wasn’t enough momentum for him to capture the primary win in the nation’s second primary/caucus. Of course there is speculation that the reason for Obama’s narrow loss in New Hampshire is the fact that young voters, especially at Dartmouth, didn’t come out to support him and Hillary was able to get the female vote this time around (which Obama actually took in Iowa).
So the youth vote clearly has major power in the primaries, but as CNN contributor Gloria Brazile told Lou Dobbs last night, the vote of the black woman is crucial to both Obama and Clinton. The black woman is a part of what both candidates consider a part of their constitutency and I think that they have more power than Americans and even the candidates realize.
08roconnor // January 22, 2008 at 11:34 pm |
I dissagre with alec, the youth vote will not have a significant impact on the 08 election. Too many young people have so little intrest in the election that their impact is almost nil. However they have more power in influence then they have i their own vote.
All of the other voting blocks wield much more power than the youth voting block.
08lgattozzi // January 23, 2008 at 1:50 am |
Personally, I feel this is a critical election. I think this is one of the first elections where young individuals are curious and interested about what has been happening in politics. I mean, the next president could really make a difference in our country. I do feel a lot of young people will vote and that the turnout will very large compared to young voters voting in past presidential elections.
Bridget C. // January 24, 2008 at 1:06 am |
I agree with Lisa in thinking that the turnout of young voters will be larger than the turnout in past presidential elections, but I do not think that they will have a really significant impact. Even if more young voters vote than usual, the number is still not high enough for them to make up a crucial portion of the voting population. Of course, they will have some influence as they always do, but I do not think their votes will make a huge impact on the election.
Andrew L. // January 24, 2008 at 1:29 am |
Well the impact that young voters will have during the presidential primaries is totally different than the influence they will have during the general election. The majority of young voters vote democratic and so during the primaries they could have the decding vote on who winds the nomination in some key states. As we saw in Nevada and New Hamshire the difference in votes between Hillary Clinton and Barrak Obama has been very small. A couple thousand young votes would easily swing the state one way or another chaning the entire outcome of the presidential primary. So for the primary race, young people will have a very large imact. If they turn out.
As for the general election I think they will have less of an impact. Most political pundits believe that the next president will be a Democrat, as it typically happens when a president with a very low approval rating ends his term. This in addition to the much larger turn out rate for the general elections will dwarf the impact of the youth vote.
aslivingston // January 24, 2008 at 5:10 am |
Well the impact that young voters will have during the presidential primaries is totally different than the influence they will have during the general election. The majority of young voters vote democratic and so during the primaries they could have the deciding vote on who winds the nomination in some key states. As we saw in Nevada and New Hampshire the difference in votes between Hillary Clinton and Barrak Obama has been very small. A couple thousand young votes would easily swing the state one way or another changing the entire outcome of the presidential primary. So for the primary race, young people will have a very large impact. If they turn out.
As for the general election I think they will have less of an impact. Most political pundits believe that the next president will be a Democrat, as it typically happens when a president with a very low approval rating ends his term. This in addition to the much larger turn out rate for the general elections will dwarf the impact of the youth vote.
Colleen H // January 24, 2008 at 5:57 am |
I agree with Andrew here. I also think that a big part of it is that people do not expect to have a large voter turn out from the younger demographic so when or if it does happen, the results of that election will not be what is expected and the polls predicting the outcome will once again be offbase in what they say (in terms of the primaries). While I understand that Rob may think that they do not care enough to go out and vote, as this has been factually shown, I think that someone like Barack Obama has garnered enough support from this group of voters to show that he has the ability to mobilize these people and get them to the polls to vote for him. It would be interesting to see how much of an impact a signficant increase in young voters would have on the actual presidential election, though I agree that it probably will not be as significant in the actual election than it will be in the primaries.
Mike S. // January 24, 2008 at 11:13 pm |
I feel that the youth of America is going to come out in record numbers even if it is not in the primaries. Everyday kids are dying in Iraq. Everyone has a friend who is fighting there in this war that should be over. I was having a discussion with my father yes it is true that the youth today aren’t as politically active as during the Vietnam war. I strongly feel that this is turning into the second Vietnam war in the sense that we wont win and I think kids see this. Also many kids are facing that costs of education and college and some are feeling the after effects. They want change this is supposed to be the land of opportunity not just for the rich but for everyone.
kevoco75 // January 24, 2008 at 11:34 pm |
I feel that the youth of America will have a somewhat large impact on the 2008 election. Sure they aren’t the largest voting block in the electorate, but I believe that teens in America are so sick and tired of the Bush administration that they will want significant change in Washington. This is one of the reasons that Barack Obama draws such a large amount of young people to his cause.
NickMurr // January 25, 2008 at 1:36 am |
I think most of us are missing some key facts that we’ve seen in past elections. The “young voter” age group, however it is portrayed, has had the least percentage of voters in the recent era. Not only is this true, but we haven’t seen an enormous influx of young voters in the primary process. Yes, the democrats have been attracting record amounts of voters but most of those are independents, not necessarily young whipper-snappers. I feel that before we start proclaiming this generation of young people as the ones to break the trend, they need to prove to us that they can mobilize and vote in larger-than-normal numbers. And that may not even be shown until the general election on November 4th.
Will H. // January 25, 2008 at 4:19 am |
I feel that young voters, for the first time in a while, feel that they have a candidate they can put trust in with Obama. His appeal to youth is enormous and this will obviously factor into the Primaries as well as the Presidential (if he makes it that far). This trust that the youth vote has in Obama will result in a few things, one of which is turnout. If people, no matter what age, are passionate about a candidate, they will find time to vote for them. If Obama can keep the youth passionate about his run for presidency, the youth will vote. If Obama can take an overwhelming majority of this demographic, he will be that much closer to winning the primaries.
Gerry Castro // January 26, 2008 at 4:29 am |
The youth vote will not count for much in the 2008 Presidential election. Obviously, Barack Obama lost in New Hampshire despite its fair amount of universities and colleges with voting eligible youth. This constituency did not turnout to vote in record numbers, nor did their vote do much to affect the outcome. This idea that young voters now are more energized and passionate is a farce. They are no more formidable than they were in 2004. Obama should expect a sizable number of votes from youth voters, but should not bank on them winning him the nomination.
akhazanovich // January 29, 2008 at 3:56 am |
I agree with Will. Obama has untapped a hidden powerhouse by relating himself to the younger demographic and pushing them to vote in greater numbers. It is true that historically youth demographic do not have a major impact in the polls, but the number of eligble voters in that demographic and on par with all other major demographics if not greater. This means the only problem is getting young people to vote. Obama has seen that if he can persuade young people to vote (since getting them to support him is the easy party since very little compeititon for the demographic), it can become a major impact on the election. Obama is going for the untapped voters, the independents (like Nick said), but also the youth. That combination may very well be key to winning the primaries and inevitably winning the presidency.